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Dec 26, 2012
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so there was a little bit of tension we haven't seen since before superstorm sandy. the cliff was pushed asunder for the moment. but i think this is a little bit of a sugar rush. i think we may see prices bounce higher in the next few months but the real big surge will come in the spring when it typically does. shibani: interesting, tom, we're so fiscal cliff-focused that international dynamics are still playing into things. i want to talk about that a little more. there was a report that couple out last month that the u.s. could be middle east energy independent sometime in 2035. what are your thoughts on that? >> you're probably referring to the report that said middle east independent. i'm not sure about 3025, i think by end of this decade we could become much less dependent on it. however if you have a collapse in prices let's say 25 or $30 that would change a lot of calculus. the oil shave revolution only works when the price of, let's say domestic crude is above $70 a barrel. so that is a threat there. shibani: that is interesting. you say depending upon where
so there was a little bit of tension we haven't seen since before superstorm sandy. the cliff was pushed asunder for the moment. but i think this is a little bit of a sugar rush. i think we may see prices bounce higher in the next few months but the real big surge will come in the spring when it typically does. shibani: interesting, tom, we're so fiscal cliff-focused that international dynamics are still playing into things. i want to talk about that a little more. there was a report that...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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it is on the back of sandy. it's moving into the materials and industrials. >> weiss, the rlx hit a historic high in early december. gap down, abercrombie down ralph lauren down. even though i called you my wife. >> i was going to let that go. i was assuming you were talking to pete. in macy's, i've been losing money. the stocks are extremely cheap. a lot of the retailers are cheap, but you can't ignore the data. there's been no reason to really feel good about retail except for the housing market. discount the employment numbers because of participation rate. i'm with joe. i think you have to take the money off because the next move that's going to be in the market is going to be in the cyclical stocks if you get a deal on the fiscal cliff. if not, then retail goes worse. we analyzed this last week and said there's big drag. >> so, doc, is the trade the prudent trade you have to take some money off the table in the retail space? the consumer, the data has shown to be good and then you get holiday numbers from m
it is on the back of sandy. it's moving into the materials and industrials. >> weiss, the rlx hit a historic high in early december. gap down, abercrombie down ralph lauren down. even though i called you my wife. >> i was going to let that go. i was assuming you were talking to pete. in macy's, i've been losing money. the stocks are extremely cheap. a lot of the retailers are cheap, but you can't ignore the data. there's been no reason to really feel good about retail except for the...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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it's not all on sandy. >> depends how you read that metric. when the story is finally told, not .7%, somewhere higher than that. m moo. >> maybe it will. it's not all sandy, people cutting back already, whether military families cutting back dramatically because of sequestration or people who work at defense contractors out of jobs. there's a lot of bad heading our way. to josh's point, people will still send their kids to school and still go shopping but everybody is going to cut back how they shop. they will be trading down, judge, i think. and these idiots from harry reid to the president on top and john boehner included, i'm equal opportunity, it's horrible. >> we heard the same thing at the end of 2011 europe would spill to theist and the u.s. consumer was changing their habits. i'd like to point out the discretionary consumer is the second best in the market this year, 21%. any whoever made a bet against the u.s. consumer -- >> what kind of pullback are we talking about? if you guys like the market through the early part of 2013 -- >> i
it's not all on sandy. >> depends how you read that metric. when the story is finally told, not .7%, somewhere higher than that. m moo. >> maybe it will. it's not all sandy, people cutting back already, whether military families cutting back dramatically because of sequestration or people who work at defense contractors out of jobs. there's a lot of bad heading our way. to josh's point, people will still send their kids to school and still go shopping but everybody is going to cut...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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giving you a lot of reasons for this most of which they seem to believe was superstorm sandy that hit the big shopping areas and 5 lot of the big -- a lot of the big population centers on the east coast, and people there in new york, new england did not shop, and that was sufficient enough to bring down the numbers nationwide. there was a built of a rebound prior to christmas, but not enough to put us back on track for what the national retail federation says is their prediction for the holiday shopping season. 4.1% growth over last year, $586 billion season, but others say, no, nrf is off, and, in fact, shopper trek on monday revised from 3.3% to 2.5% growth. expect to see big sales, especially when you consider, nrf says, i think, that retailers make anywhere from 20% to 40% of revenue in the holiday shopping season, could be bad news for a lot of people. ashley: could indeed. adam, thank you very much. >> yep. ashley: there's a holiday hangover today, no doubt about, that but they have to help customers know when a sale is a sale. scott, bbc capital markets retail analyst joining m
giving you a lot of reasons for this most of which they seem to believe was superstorm sandy that hit the big shopping areas and 5 lot of the big -- a lot of the big population centers on the east coast, and people there in new york, new england did not shop, and that was sufficient enough to bring down the numbers nationwide. there was a built of a rebound prior to christmas, but not enough to put us back on track for what the national retail federation says is their prediction for the holiday...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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holiday retail sales were basically unchanged from last year and sandy, of course, and the connecticut shooting got some blame, but what about no jobs and no money? coming up, the opening bell, futures are up. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all onhinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ from td ameritrade. i played a round of golf.id in the last five hours? then i read a book while teaching myself how to play guitar; ran ten miles while knitting myself a sweater; jumped out of a plane. finally, i became a ping pong master while recording debut album. how you ask? with 5-hour energy. i get hours of energy now -- no crash later. wait to see the next five hours. >>> david asman, in for mr. varney. we're minutes away, dow futures are trading up. so at least at the beginning it may be a good trading day. now 15 seconds away from the opening of the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 have been
holiday retail sales were basically unchanged from last year and sandy, of course, and the connecticut shooting got some blame, but what about no jobs and no money? coming up, the opening bell, futures are up. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all onhinkorswim from td ameritrade....
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Dec 28, 2012
12/12
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but sandy levin has a bill that is i'd wall. all bhoehner has to do is make those changes on the noor. the idea that they would love to pass this senate bill. but the constitution is standing in their way. okay, this is over. you are boeing to fold, when are you going to fold. the senate has lith rated tax bills many peoples. the variety of of ways to get around that. but i want to listen to something within the host on foxnews about how the president has handled this situation. >> he's been using this with great skill to shatter the doubt of the house. his objective from the very beginning was to break the will of the republicans and great an internal civil war. and he has done that. from insisting on day one that republicans have to race rates. he says that is what he will in visit upon flt he knew it will great a crisis and he did. >> between donald world al add. we are deeply think and al ilt ce in wonderland for hours before we hit the deadline. the idea of the tax bill, when i was listening to harry reid. he accept saying
but sandy levin has a bill that is i'd wall. all bhoehner has to do is make those changes on the noor. the idea that they would love to pass this senate bill. but the constitution is standing in their way. okay, this is over. you are boeing to fold, when are you going to fold. the senate has lith rated tax bills many peoples. the variety of of ways to get around that. but i want to listen to something within the host on foxnews about how the president has handled this situation. >> he's...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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so blame superstorm sandy. if it is worse than everyone is predicting then perhaps you could blame the fiscal cliff. lori: i think adam might take you out for glass wine after the show. >> we could drink. tracy: we should go shop first, really good sales. >> probably line. there are good sales online. tracy: learn so much about your colleagues. love it. lori: so what happens to america's credit rating if we do go over the fiscal cliff? you will recall last year's debt ceiling debacle resulted in standard & poor's stripping the u.s. of its top rating and now fitch is warning of a possible review. joining us now to discuss this possibility and the ramification senior editor with "the national review" and former campaign manager for dick gephardt's presidential campaign. welcome to you both. ramesh i begin with you. one. topics lost in the shuffle in the fiscal cliff negotiation we're perilously close to running up against the debt ceiling again. what do you think should happen with the debt ceiling? are you reall
so blame superstorm sandy. if it is worse than everyone is predicting then perhaps you could blame the fiscal cliff. lori: i think adam might take you out for glass wine after the show. >> we could drink. tracy: we should go shop first, really good sales. >> probably line. there are good sales online. tracy: learn so much about your colleagues. love it. lori: so what happens to america's credit rating if we do go over the fiscal cliff? you will recall last year's debt ceiling...
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Dec 28, 2012
12/12
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sandy is a part of it. i think there's a part of it, too, and this is just anecdotal myself and some friends i talked about. when you had what happened in newtown, shortly before christmas, you know, in the new year and hanukkah and you start to think, what is it all about, right? i think it's brought at least some of my friends have -- they've shopped less. is that a good thing? i'm not making a judgment on what people do with the economy. i know we need to sell things. that's how the economy moves on, but i think people have maybe to your point, reverend, reflected a little more. listen, it's been a crap year, okay? i'm sorry for the language. with these types of shootings, aurora, colorado, hurricane sandy, droughts in the midwest, people losing their farms. it's been a very difficult year for a lot of people, and i think maybe this season people were nesting a little more and reflecting on what was important for them in a good way. >> people were still in shock. >> you're not going to run to the malls a
sandy is a part of it. i think there's a part of it, too, and this is just anecdotal myself and some friends i talked about. when you had what happened in newtown, shortly before christmas, you know, in the new year and hanukkah and you start to think, what is it all about, right? i think it's brought at least some of my friends have -- they've shopped less. is that a good thing? i'm not making a judgment on what people do with the economy. i know we need to sell things. that's how the economy...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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you have sandy. the weather hasn't been cooperating. so, there's some real consumer downturn as well. >> and what are you able to tell us about the decisions that your clients are making with you? you are trading leases all the time, presumably, all the big, high-street names. is there optimism? what are the leases you are signing at the moment, higher than lower than perhaps we had six months or a year ago? >> the national retailers continue to be very optimistic about the next couple of years. we are in a recovery, not with sa standing that the fiscal cliff. i think most of the national retailers continue to be optimistic about where they are going the next couple of years. lots of leases are being signed. store counts are being expanded. the retailers, in general, have stronger balance sheets and they are ready to grow again. hopefully, this will be just a temporary pause in terms of the fiscal situation. >> hey, david, i'm curious you when we are sitting here and just after the christmas holiday, what data point do you look to give
you have sandy. the weather hasn't been cooperating. so, there's some real consumer downturn as well. >> and what are you able to tell us about the decisions that your clients are making with you? you are trading leases all the time, presumably, all the big, high-street names. is there optimism? what are the leases you are signing at the moment, higher than lower than perhaps we had six months or a year ago? >> the national retailers continue to be very optimistic about the next...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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there were 53 trailer homes or mobile homes there and they were all wiped out by sandy. all but one. one man living there and the interesting thing is that was almost a secret with the 53 families that lived there and they thought they were in on. that is a lost memory. that's a lost habitat and really a lost community. that's a process of figuring that out. if it does come back. what we did for nora efron, some people almost don't know what you could add beyond the "new york times" obituary and the other pieces in new york magazine this summer. for nora efron, we commissioned a tribute to her. she created a collage of that famous meg ryan so lil we in how harry met sally. she did it with all the letters from nora efron's "new york times" obituary. it is a pretty incredible thing to the whole and a lot of people. armstrong is another. we wanted to pay our tribute and thought we could get as much meaning as we could. >> it's interesting how often i think you think of nora or i think of nora or a lot of people think of nora during the course of a day. >> completely. >> the
there were 53 trailer homes or mobile homes there and they were all wiped out by sandy. all but one. one man living there and the interesting thing is that was almost a secret with the 53 families that lived there and they thought they were in on. that is a lost memory. that's a lost habitat and really a lost community. that's a process of figuring that out. if it does come back. what we did for nora efron, some people almost don't know what you could add beyond the "new york times"...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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superstorm sandy hid the regions of the country where we saw the biggest dropoff in spending in that period between october 28th and dec. 20 fourth. there were some rebounds. shopping came back in the last part of holiday shopping season until christmas eve but it was not sufficient to get back on track to what everyone expected. dennis: thank you. with weaker than expected retail numbers we will be heading into a recession next year. shibani: jim laventhol says in many ways yes, but it won't be a disaster. welcome to the show. you heard what adam said, that the consumer which accounts for 70% of the gdp, spending, they are pulling back and pulled back this year and during holiday shopping season. how close are we to start getting into this talk of getting into recession again? >> we're pretty close by i appreciate your pudding a qualifier that we don't have to go into a panic. there are a couple reasons for that. if you look at the stock market which is mainly where people place risk bets on growing their assets it is arguably fairly priced, somewhere between 13 times and 14 times t
superstorm sandy hid the regions of the country where we saw the biggest dropoff in spending in that period between october 28th and dec. 20 fourth. there were some rebounds. shopping came back in the last part of holiday shopping season until christmas eve but it was not sufficient to get back on track to what everyone expected. dennis: thank you. with weaker than expected retail numbers we will be heading into a recession next year. shibani: jim laventhol says in many ways yes, but it won't...
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Dec 26, 2012
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among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for housing data. tomorrow we're going to be getting the commerce department which releases new home sales for november. then on friday, the national association of realtors, not realtors -- >> yeah. >> releases its spending. its pending home sales index for november. >> in other housing news, the obama administration is considering expanding its mortgage refinancing program to include borrowers whose mortgages are not backed by the government and who owe more than their homes are worth. "the journal" reports one proposal being considered would also transfer potentially riskier loans that are held by private
among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had the pro bowl. there was no excitement. there was no reason to come out shopping. so big bang, but it kind of waned as we went into the season. >> how much of the season is in the books now? i mean, what's still left to happen? >> there's a couple of big days still coming. i think this weekend is a big weekend as people redeem gift cards, go into the stores, exchange items for what they're looking for. hopefully get that add-on sale and people start to take advantage of the clearance sale, i would say, though, 95% of it is in the books. we've probably got some strong days ahead of us, though, that could move it
all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had...